Well, my return to blogging wasn't as triumphal as I had hoped. While AV was rejected (hooray!), last Thursday's election results were a curiously mixed bag for Labour. Scotland showed how a campaign can turn out if only your core voters support you, while the local elections in England showed a similar, if slightly less dramatic story. Wales provided a high point for the night, though lacking the one gain which would have tipped the balance completely in Carwyn Jones favour.
Here in Monmouth, we actually achieved something rare, even if we did miss out on taking the seat. Mark Whitcutt managed swings from both LibDem AND Conservatives, recovering a lot of ground that had been lost in 2007 and 2010. The Conservatives now have a majority of six thousand, making Monmouth an interesting fight next time around.
Several issues have emerged from the results which need to be considered over the coming months. Of course there was the LibDem collapse - entirely predicted and deserved. But the expected Tory core stay at home never transpired. Why? Well, the AV vote would have brought many Tory voters out, while a couple of flag waving stories (some wedding and a skirmish in Pakistan) may have persuaded some to whistle 'Land Of Hope And Glory' on the way to the Polling stations. But while these factors may have played a part, there are several truths that Labour need to digest over the coming 12 months.
There seems to be around 35% of voters (nearer 50% here in Monmouth) that actually like the idea of cutting public spending. This is a harsh lesson for the left, given that we believed we had changed the landscape in the Blair years, and had altered the political culture just as much as Thatcher had. We are once more losing the debate on public services, thanks to a great deal of Tory trickery. Those very people who were promising to match Labour's spending commitments before the crash, suddenly made out that the worldwide recession was caused by Labour over spending. We meekly allowed them to get away with those allegations last summer and are suffering for it now.
In Monmouth, we learned how badly that can affect a campaign when dealing with a largely unsympathetic media. Put out a story on Labour protecting libraries and it is carried, complete with photo showing candidate and award winning author supporting him. Try to put forward an argument about the economy which challenges Tory hegemony and we struggled to be published. So the realisation that the Big Society Bank will take money away from charitable donations, or the notion that the banks have a hold over the Tories thanks to huge donations are conveniently ignored.
The result? An electorate which believes that Labour care about public services alone, while those ultra responsible Conservatives take the difficult decisions about balancing the books and managing the finances. That particular argument has been advanced so far over the last twelve months that Labour's options have been severely narrowed. Pointing out that most of these cuts are ideological and politically motivated will not shift that stubborn third of the electorate one bit. Anyone who believes we simply need a big push is sadly deluded.
Instead, we need to play on the Tory economic pitch, just as we did in the early Blair years. We need to be tough on Tory votes and tough on the causes of Tory votes. As the man himself said, the Tories don't have the best policies, they just steal the best language, similar to the Devil and his tunes. Ed Milliband has made a start by making Ed Balls his Shadow Chancellor, but having the right man in the right job is merely a start. "Too far too fast" is not resonating with the voters we need to win over, both in Monmouth and nationwide. Pointing out the flaws in Tory plans are not enough. We need to put forward an economic agenda that is both fair and competent, both convincing and measured. If we can convince people that we are to be trusted with the economy, then the squabbles of 2010 will be forgotten. I am unsure, though, whether we need to nail the Tory myths before we can manage that.
In 1992 we went from people not trusting Labour to Black Wednesday in a matter of months. John Smith's elevation to the Leadership made sure that we were in position to take advantage of people's anger. A similar event could well have the same effect, and given the Tories reluctance to regulate the Banks, another crash could be just around the corner. However, until such an event occurs, we need to concentrate on showing how the Tories are failing to match up to their own hype. Every increase in unemployment, every stutter in the growth figures and every dip in business confidence needs to be magnified. Locally, we need to take on board the concerns of SME's and the business community as a whole. Until we convince people that we can handle the economy with confidence again, we will be a nice party that they do not trust with their votes.
Here in Monmouth, we actually achieved something rare, even if we did miss out on taking the seat. Mark Whitcutt managed swings from both LibDem AND Conservatives, recovering a lot of ground that had been lost in 2007 and 2010. The Conservatives now have a majority of six thousand, making Monmouth an interesting fight next time around.
Several issues have emerged from the results which need to be considered over the coming months. Of course there was the LibDem collapse - entirely predicted and deserved. But the expected Tory core stay at home never transpired. Why? Well, the AV vote would have brought many Tory voters out, while a couple of flag waving stories (some wedding and a skirmish in Pakistan) may have persuaded some to whistle 'Land Of Hope And Glory' on the way to the Polling stations. But while these factors may have played a part, there are several truths that Labour need to digest over the coming 12 months.
There seems to be around 35% of voters (nearer 50% here in Monmouth) that actually like the idea of cutting public spending. This is a harsh lesson for the left, given that we believed we had changed the landscape in the Blair years, and had altered the political culture just as much as Thatcher had. We are once more losing the debate on public services, thanks to a great deal of Tory trickery. Those very people who were promising to match Labour's spending commitments before the crash, suddenly made out that the worldwide recession was caused by Labour over spending. We meekly allowed them to get away with those allegations last summer and are suffering for it now.
In Monmouth, we learned how badly that can affect a campaign when dealing with a largely unsympathetic media. Put out a story on Labour protecting libraries and it is carried, complete with photo showing candidate and award winning author supporting him. Try to put forward an argument about the economy which challenges Tory hegemony and we struggled to be published. So the realisation that the Big Society Bank will take money away from charitable donations, or the notion that the banks have a hold over the Tories thanks to huge donations are conveniently ignored.
The result? An electorate which believes that Labour care about public services alone, while those ultra responsible Conservatives take the difficult decisions about balancing the books and managing the finances. That particular argument has been advanced so far over the last twelve months that Labour's options have been severely narrowed. Pointing out that most of these cuts are ideological and politically motivated will not shift that stubborn third of the electorate one bit. Anyone who believes we simply need a big push is sadly deluded.
Instead, we need to play on the Tory economic pitch, just as we did in the early Blair years. We need to be tough on Tory votes and tough on the causes of Tory votes. As the man himself said, the Tories don't have the best policies, they just steal the best language, similar to the Devil and his tunes. Ed Milliband has made a start by making Ed Balls his Shadow Chancellor, but having the right man in the right job is merely a start. "Too far too fast" is not resonating with the voters we need to win over, both in Monmouth and nationwide. Pointing out the flaws in Tory plans are not enough. We need to put forward an economic agenda that is both fair and competent, both convincing and measured. If we can convince people that we are to be trusted with the economy, then the squabbles of 2010 will be forgotten. I am unsure, though, whether we need to nail the Tory myths before we can manage that.
In 1992 we went from people not trusting Labour to Black Wednesday in a matter of months. John Smith's elevation to the Leadership made sure that we were in position to take advantage of people's anger. A similar event could well have the same effect, and given the Tories reluctance to regulate the Banks, another crash could be just around the corner. However, until such an event occurs, we need to concentrate on showing how the Tories are failing to match up to their own hype. Every increase in unemployment, every stutter in the growth figures and every dip in business confidence needs to be magnified. Locally, we need to take on board the concerns of SME's and the business community as a whole. Until we convince people that we can handle the economy with confidence again, we will be a nice party that they do not trust with their votes.
Face it, the group that actually votes in any large numbers are the older voter. Tailor your policies towards them and you will always get votes. Trouble is also goes with the territory of not liking the young, loving high house prices, loving high interest rates (have no debts), love big pensions, love buy to let mortgages, love low tax...I could go on.
ReplyDeletePolitics for the next 20 years will be as much about age as it was about class at the end of the 20th century..
Love having their children lose their jobs, their grandchildren unable to afford a deposit for a house or be saddled with huge tuition fees.....
ReplyDeleteI do accept your point about old people and their voting records, Ben, but I would challenge the assertion that they only vote in narrow self interest. Any party that can put forward a credible programme for growth and economic stability will be popular among these voters.
The right amount of investment, affordable and targetted house building programmes along with re-skilling programmes to create a truly flexible workforce will make a start in this respect.